Estimates
SANDAG has produced annual population and housing estimates since 1974. These estimates provide both internal and external customers with sub-jurisdiction-level information about population, housing, demographic, and household characteristics from a composite of data sources. They supplement the decennial census and American Community Survey datasets for the San Diego region.
As new input data used to calculate the estimates—such as new releases from the Census Bureau, SANDAG’s Land Use and Dwelling Unit Inventory, or the California Department of Finance—are made available each year, we provide new editions of our estimates. It is a best practices to use the most recent release available.
Find SANDAG’s estimates products on the Open Data Portal.
Forecasts
SANDAG has produced growth forecasts of population, housing, employment, income, and land use in the San Diego region since 1971. These forecasts help SANDAG, local jurisdictions, and other external consumers to plan appropriate facilities, services, and development practices over the long term. SANDAG’s forecasts are updated about once every four years reflecting the current local planning assumptions and policies as well as changes to long-term economic trends and demographic patterns. Forecasts reflect the assumptions deemed “most likely” to occur in the future for the San Diego region at the time of their development. They are just one of many potential sets of assumptions that may occur in the region.
A series refers to the edition of the forecast. With every Regional Plan, there is a new edition, or series, of forecasted data used to inform the plan. Best practices for using forecast data include using the most recent series available.
Find SANDAG’s forecast products on the Open Data Portal.
Series 15 Forecast: What Will the Region Look Like in 2050?
The Series 15 forecast, which has a launch year of 2022 and looks out to 2050, was completed in 2024 and is used in the modeling and planning for the 2025 Regional Plan to identify how we will improve transportation, equity, and the environment for people in the San Diego region. It is also used by local jurisdictions, public-sector agencies, private interests, and others to understand and plan for the future. Series 15 forecast data is available on SANDAG’s Open Data Portal and was presented at Sustainable Communities Working Group on February 15, 2024, the Regional Planning Committee on March 1, 2024, and approved on consent at the Board of Directors meeting on April 26, 2024.
Series 14: 2050 Regional Growth Forecast
The Series 14 Regional Growth Forecast includes assumptions about how local plans and policies may evolve over time in response to the region’s continuing growth. Most current local plans typically project ten or twenty years in the future. Starting with the Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast, the horizon year was set thirty years in the future to 2050. To bridge the gap in projected years, SANDAG began the forecast with adopted general plans and policies from the 18 incorporated cities and the unincorporated County. Then, local jurisdictions were asked to provide detailed feedback on anticipated land use planning changes. The Series 14 Regional Growth Forecast includes this feedback along with the general plans to create a better assessment of where change may occur in the coming decades.
For the Series 14 Regional Growth Forecast, SANDAG produced a baseline subregional allocation based on existing plans and policies. In addition, to support the 2021 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP/SCS), SANDAG produced the SCS Land Use Pattern which assumes a densification of land use within Mobility Hubs. Refer to the Series 14 Baseline and SCS Land Use Pattern documentation for more information on the assumptions and methodology used in the respective forecast scenarios.
Series 13: Regional Growth Forecast
The Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast was approved for distribution and use in planning and other studies by SANDAG's Board of Directors in October 2013. It is the basis for San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan, including its Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS). This forecast represents the best assessment of the changes we can anticipate for the region and its communities based on the best available information and well-proven, verified computer models. The SANDAG forecasts are meant to help policy- and decision-makers prepare for the future and are not an expression for or against growth. The forecasts are developed through a collaborative effort with experts in demography, housing, the economy, and other disciplines, and in close cooperation with the local planning directors and their staff.
Series 12: 2008-2050
SANDAG's Series 12 Regional Growth Forecast was approved for use by SANDAG's Board of Directors in October 2011 for distribution and use in planning and other studies.