Sustainable Growth & Development

The Series 15 Regional Growth Forecast is the foundation of the SCS land use pattern and is used to develop the transportation network in the Regional Plan. The forecast lays out how the population is expected to grow and change over the next couple of decades. It considers a variety of factors, such as available capacity for housing and accessibility to jobs and transportation. Importantly, the SCS land use pattern aligns with each jurisdiction’s adopted general plan.

The forecast is a result of collaboration between demographers, planners, and policy makers.  A wide range of local and regional subject matter experts contribute and review the forecast throughout the process. Further details about the Series 15 Regional Growth Forecast and SCS land use pattern can be found in Appendix F (coming soon) of the 2025 Regional Plan.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) sets mandated regional targets for the reduction of GHG emissions. The state-mandated target for the San Diego region is to reduce its per capita GHG emissions from cars and light duty trucks by 19% from 2005 levels in by 2035. As the region’s Metropolitan Planning Organization, if we cannot meet that target through the SCS, we are responsible for developing an Alternative Planning Strategy that demonstrates how the emissions target could be achieved. To satisfy this requirement and address the region’s needs, the Regional Plan’s SCS expands transportation choices to promote safe, affordable, and convenient alternatives to driving alone.

On-road transportation produces 48% of regional GHG emissions, 79% of commuters drive alone, and only 12% of low-income residents live within a half mile of public transit. SANDAG is committed to creating a transportation network that offers fast, frequent, and low-cost transit while expanding zero-emission options for vehicles. 

Most jurisdictions in the San Diego region are working on Climate Action Plans or other strategies to complement the SCS and further reduce emissions.

The SCS includes an analysis of how projected growth in population could impact regional land use and housing needs.

During the last decade, many local jurisdictions updated their land use plans and zoning ordinances, which collectively moved the region toward more compact development near transit with greater open space preservation. More housing and job centers are being developed in existing urbanized areas instead of expanding outward. By the year 2050, when our population is anticipated to reach 3.7 million people (about 13% more than today), approximately half of the region’s land will be dedicated to open space and habitat preservation.

Updated city housing elements also align with state housing laws, increasing housing supply and affordability by streamlining the development process and rezoning to allow for a greater variety of uses. Regionally, SANDAG continues to bridge the gap by aligning housing policies with transportation initiatives, seeking state and federal housing grants, and supporting local jurisdictions through the Housing Technical Assistance Program.

Land use codes and definitions live on their own web page.